Oddsfanatic is an up-to-date source for MLB bets and weekly baseball picks, providing you with insight on the most common bets in baseball. Here we’ll examine some total systems that have proved to be profitable over a long period of time.
As information on MLB betting systems expands and becomes more prevalent, Odds Fanatic is trying to stay on the forefront of this ever-changing industry.
Baseball Betting Strategies
Wager UNDER In MLB Games With Dogs
Over the course of 162 games, bad teams will sometimes play like champions and elite teams will sometimes stumble like they are in the bottom of their respective division. One can take advantage of the opportunities from unlikely occurrences and tracks in history by baseball betting.
To get this system, we focus on bad teams who are playing well. This is one of the most common things to go back and find and has powerful results associated with it regarding total wagers. When looking for probable MLB picks in 2021, it is important to look for underdogs who have won their last five games all as underdogs.
Let’s face it, any team that is not predicted to win for six consecutive games must be a terrible team. If you consider betting at even odds, the chance of any team winning five games in a row is 3.1%. Experienced MLB bettors know that the chances of an underdog stringing together a five-consecutive victory is rare.
This system has gone 49-30-3 to the UNDER since 2004. It turns a nice return on our investment of 17.3%.
*Note that while this system is most effective when using the criteria above, it’s also profitable (53%) when you have a home team that is playing their 6th consecutive game as a large underdog and has won at least two games consecutively.
Wager UNDER Games With Short Moneyline
This is an easy betting system that has been profitable long-term. If you want to start betting on the MLB, examine AL games where the moneyline ranges from +115 to -115 and total is at least 10.
What we will do is focus on games two and three of a 3-game series, where the first game went over the total of 10. The reason we use the American League is because these games are generally considered higher scoring and oddsmakers likely set more over-bets.
Odds of +115 to -115 are used to focus on games that are expected to be evenly matched. We take all of our information and use a total of 10 or more to find a bias towards scoring. Adding in the first game of a series which has gone over, we’ve seen that this typically sets the next game’s total at little higher
After following this system, the under has won 53% of games over the last 10+ seasons (181-158-11).
Umpires Can Impact MLB Bets
If you have been wagering on baseball for a while now, it’s likely that the umpires have crossed your mind when betting sides. There are many sites that list the trends of different umps behind the plate. While it’s not a bad idea to look at these when breaking down games, Odds Fanatic recommends to overreact to results you see.
MLB umpires generally have a 50% split on the over/under for the games they call over time, so don’t be duped by recent trends. You need to see a notable difference in the total long-term before blindly backing it based on the recent performance of the umpire behind the plate. In order to benefit from umpire tendencies, you have to know what a given umpire’s strike zone is.
A small strike zone will often lead to higher-scoring games. This is because the pitchers need to throw more pitches over the heart of the plate, which is advantageous for hitters and leads to run scoring opportunities. This needs to be taken into consideration while picking OVER.
Historically, umpires with a generous strike zone have favored the under in baseball games. In contrast, if you’re seeing an umpire with a tight strike zone, then pitchers are at an extreme advantage and hitters risk being called out left-and-right and swing pitches outside their comfort zone. However, there is a catch. The team’s starter needs to have the accuracy to take advantage of the “big zone” on that field.
How Does Series Betting Work In The MLB?
Want to spice up your MLB betting this season? You should definitely gamble on baseball series. These picks give a little more extra on your betting experience.
Wagering on this isn’t very common, and for many people it’s not even something they even know about. Our goal from OddsFanatic is to provide you with some essential information. In the simplest of terms, you’re betting on which team you think will win a series. For example, say that Chicago Cubs just took two out of three games from Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field in a 3-game set.
If you had bet on the Cubs to win either two out of three games or all three, you would have won your bet. These aren’t picks you want to make a lot of during the whole MLB season. However, there are many situations when these bet are effective.
Taking Great Teams v. Bad Teams Won’t Always Help
One of the most common bets in baseball is betting on a team that could be “the next big thing” to win a championship, or betting on a team who lost last year and wants revenge. You’ll end up with a lot more money in your pocket if you bet on less-favored teams once in a while.
Betting against a public favorite is always riskier than betting on the favourite, but it can sometimes be worth doing if you think your chosen underdog has a good shot at winning. It doesn’t matter where you decide to bet. When a team is believed to be better than their opponent, the odds will be long and you’ll have to pay more juice.
If you only place bets on the front-runners, it will take a very high success rate just to break even. You also have to account for the fact that even the team with the worst record in baseball usually ends up winning around 40% of their games.
Here is an important point to remember. Teams at the bottom of their division are likely to play their best baseball against the better teams which may result in a win. Good teams will be less focused on these matches most likely choosing to overlook these bad opponents who won’t pose much of a threat.
Make Smart MLB Bets & Picks To Increase Your Chances
Something to consider is the risk involved with key players not playing. Whether it’s a position player being injured or starter getting skipped over in the rotation or taking some time off. When betting on an individual game, select the pitcher. That’s not possible for bets in this category. You must place it for several games ahead of time.
Finding out about who will be the projected starters isn’t very difficult. It becomes an issue if they suddenly get sick or need a break because of an injury. Then you might have a rookie from double-A or a member of the bullpen taking the responsibility which will diminish your winning chances.
The purpose of OddsFanatic is not to discourage gambling, but it is something you should be aware about when placing a wager. Pitching changes over the course of a baseball season are inevitable. However, this is what bettors should look at before placing a wager.
Take Advantage Of Prices, Odds And Betting Lines
If the price is good on the team you want to bet, then by all means go after those bets and check them on different online betting sites. Sometimes you will receive a better return on your investment by betting series total than betting individual games.
When placing bets, it is easy to attract the odds favored by betting on who you expect will win. Here’s a simple example: when an ace athlete is pitching in game one of any series, that team will typically be heavily favored specially if it’s a home game.
Instead of buying a money line in this spot, paying high juice and cutting your profits, it’s often best to consider the series price. In fact, the series price might not be all that different than what was offered for Game 1. There are many opportunities when betting on games, but finding the right value is the key.
Here are some other points that we like you to look after before betting:
- Teams who will be fielding their three highest-rated pitchers against an opponent that has just seen its own three best pitchers pitch in the previous series.
- Organisations and Teams with a tough record, but have been playing well lately as they take on a top-rated team that is not having good luck.
- Teams coming off a long road trip who have a strong record at home.
How MLB Parlays Work
Most of you who are reading this article will likely be familiar with how parlays work. But, we wanted to take a quick second to explain it for anyone who is not familiar with this wager type. Betting on multiple games at the same time is called a “parlay.”
The collective payout is much more than if you were to bet the plays separately. However, a parlay can only win when all individual bets are won. Otherwise your entire wager will be lost.
How Can I Calculate My MLB Parlay Payout?
A parlay is a one of the MLB bets that requires you to pick the winner of two or more games. We’ve already mentioned that parlays offer an advantage over betting on each individual game. If you want to know how much you will win during a particular parlay, it helps to calculate the probabilities of winning for each player and find your own.
Let’s say you wanted to make a 3-teamer bet on the Yankees -150, Cubs +125 and the Dodgers -120 and you wager $100.
Follow these three steps to calculate your payout. First, pick an individual wager. Next, figure out what you would win on a standard bet for the amount of your stake. To determine your potential payout, see what you would win if the first bet was a winner. Then calculate your batting average if you take those earnings and put them on one of the two remaining wagers. You need to continue this pattern until you have included each individual wager.
If you made a bet of $100 on the Yankees at -150 per odds, you would profit $66.67, giving your total return about $166.97. The Cubs +125 bet would earn $208.34 if you put a $166.67 on it, which increases your bankroll to $375.01 ($166.97 + 208.34). On an $375.01 bet for the Dodgers at -120 odds, you would profit $312.51 and end up with a ticket that pays out $687.52 in total after paying the commission costs on your betting site of choice.
Since you have no more individual bets left, the amount of your bet that won is what you would profit on this final game. You can do the calculations for the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees in any order. However regardless of which calculation you use they will still produce $687.52 at the end as profit.
MLB Bets: Parlay Payout Calculation
To illustrate the greater payouts from a parlay, let’s compare the moneyline bet on each individual game. In this case, we place each game separately by taking odds of the Yankees -150, Cubs +125 and Dodgers -120. The payout for this strategy would have been much less than what was achieved through a successful parlay bet.
Here we put $100 on each bet and add up our return from that wager. For example, a $100 bet on the Yankees would be worth a total profit of $66.67. A wager of $100 on the Cubs would give a profit of $125 and a wager of $100 on the Dodgers -120, you could make a profit of $83.33.
While a parlay would have won $687.52 if all three bets were correct, your bets yielded only $275. You had to risk $300 for this potential payout versus risking just $100 on a parlay pick.
Figuring out the specific payout on a parlay can take quite a bit of time. However, you don’t have to worry about that because there are calculators which will figure it out for you.
Are MLB Parlay Bets Any Good?
Some people might say that parlays are a sucker bet or/and only amateur players take part in them while handicapping MLB baseball. That’s a common perception, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.
Why is betting on baseball better than football or basketball? Baseball bets are anchored to the true odds of a bet, whereas football and basketball bets are based on fixed odds.
MLB Bets: Parlays Could Give You More Value
When betting on football or basketball, your payout ratio is fixed. A 7-team parlay in these sports would result in a 75-to-1 payout for you and your true odds of winning this are 1.2% (91.42-to-one).
Baseball parlays are calculated using the exact odds of each team. So, if a bettor picks 7 teams with an average line of -110, the payout will be 91.42-to-1. That being said, this doesn’t mean that you should only use them for MLB bets.
OddsFanatic still recommends that your primary focus should be on betting games individually. You have to consider the difference in your bankroll when betting on a lot of parlays. To avoid losing much more than you win, we recommend that if you do decide to use this type of bet, it should be for half the amount at risk per wager.
Parlaying Big MLB Bets Favorites
Parlaying big favorites is the most prevalent strategy in baseball for gamblers. Combining two or more heavy favorites into one bet is a simple and popular hook.
Let us say for example that you like the Red Sox at -200 and the Rangers at -200. You decide to bet $100 on each game. 1 wager with odds of -200 would profit $50 for every winning ticket. If both bets win, you make $100. When one bet loses and the other wins, you still lose $50. If both bets lose, you are down $200.
By parlaying these two games instead of betting on each individually, you can reduce your risk and maximize your potential win. Parlay betting gives you the opportunity to risk $100 and win up to $125.
Parlaying Two Best Teams In The Finale Phase Of The Season
For those of you who are new at betting, here is a parlay system that can help with the number crunching.
When there are three months left in the season, you review the standings and mark down the two best teams. You then blindly parlay these two teams once each week when they play on the same day of week.
This is an effective way to reduce the risk of betting favorites and earn a considerable profit. Even if both teams are betting favorites, a two-team parlay will pay even money (bet 100 to win 100). There is also more upsides: you can hit less than 50% and still profit.
Side And Totals MLB Bets
Oddsfanatic provides you with a strategy that takes advantage of what you already know when figuring out who to bet on.
Analysts who find an edge on a team also have a strong opinion on whether the game will be offense-dominated or defense-oriented. A popular strategy for betting on baseball is combining the moneyline and the over/under in a parlay. We’ve noticed that a lot of experts will take the OVER when they like the road team and UNDER when they like the home team.
If you expect the road team to win, predicting that they will win late is wise. This strategy gives you an opportunity to push the home team into their 9th inning at-bat and allow them three more outs with a chance of scoring again. But if you’re going for the home team to win, that means there wouldn’t be a full inning played in the 9th inning. The home team wouldn’t bat if they had an advantage.
We recommend not using this on a regular basis, but it could be helpful to examine. Significant analysis is required because two teams’ bullpen strength has an impact on the system.
Leverage Strong MLB Bets
The strategy is used when you have a heavy favorite who you are certain will win.
Say you like the Los Angeles Dodgers at -200 with Clayton Kershaw pitching. Instead of risking $200 to win $100, you can increase your returns by adding a little bit more risk.
And you also like the Pirates +150 and the Mets +150 to win on that same day. You can place two 2-team parlays. Finding underdogs to bet on really helps boost your payouts if those teams win.
One bet had the Dodgers -200 and the Pirates +150, another had Dodgers -200 and Mets +150. Each parlay wager offers the potential to win $275. If you hit one, you’ll break even and make a profit. So if one of them gets it right, you would make $275 minus a $100 loss, netting you an extra $175. That’s more money than betting the Dodgers -200.
- Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints | NFL Betting, Odds, Picks - December 2, 2021
- Thanksgiving NFL Football | NFL Betting, Odds, Picks - November 24, 2021
- Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics | NBA Betting, Odds, Picks - November 10, 2021